And yet, and yet, you're back.....

 So it’s that time of the election season: My predictions. 

Honestly, I have no fucking idea who is going to win this thing. 

I will make two predictions that I am absolutely, positively sure will come to pass: 

1) We will not know who the winner is Tuesday night.

2) tRump will declare himself the winner before all the votes are counted, probably before all the polls are even closed, but certainly on Tuesday night. 

Beyond those two, everything else I have are just gut feelings. 

The polling all says it’s a toss up, a coin toss if you will.  Could go either way.  And that’s all the polling, from good, established pollsters to fly by night partisan hack pollsters.   Everyone seems to agree it’s too close to call.

And yet….. 

And yet, I see these crowds for Harris.  I see her filling out 30, 40, 50,000 seat areas.  Everywhere.  I see her give a speech before a crowd of 75000 that couldn’t be contained on the Ellipse in Washington, it overflowed into the Washington Mall, going as far as up the hill to the Washington Monument.   She first asked for a permit for 20000, and then had to up it to 40000 and then ended up with 75000! 

And tRump can only ‘fill’ half of a high school gymnasium.  His other venues are never full, and people continuously leave early.  Of course, he claims crowds of 50000….in venues that only hold 20000.  I have always said Crowds aren’t votes.  Even if the same person or people show up to multiple events to show their support that’s still only one vote per person. 

But what these crowds DO show is enthusiasm.  They show and excited, fired up crowd for Harris, ready to canvas, or phone bank, or go door-to-door, or send money, or talk to their friends and relatives.  And they show a tRump crowd that’s barely awake, leaving in droves before he’s done speaking (his usual speech clocks in at over and hour, sometimes and hour and a half.  Harris’ Ellipse speech, by the way, was 29 minutes).  They don’t show any enthusiasm or interest in doing anything but going home.   And an unenthusiastic vote is worth the same as an enthusiastic one remember. 

And yet…. 

And I see online how former and current Republicans are stating they’re voting for a Democrat, just this once, cause they want to preserve democracy.   And all kinds of young people posting photos of themselves after the first vote they ever made, or after they cast their vote for the first female president, or after they cast their vote for their future.   Now I understand my social media is in a bubble: several years ago I blocked or unfriended or deleted or just stopped contact with rabid MAGAmorons…I just couldn’t their rampant stupidity anymore.  So I understand I’m not seeing the full spectrum of voters online.

And yet…. 

And there are tons and tons and tons of people you wouldn’t think would endorse Harris doing so.  Republicans like Lynn Cheney and Adam Kinzinger and just this weekend, Arnold Schwarznegger.  And 8 retired four star generals and other high ranking military personnel.  And people who worked in the White House with tRump!  They knew him best, right?  And even his first vice president!  Pence has said he cannot support or vote for tRump over the insurrection.  Of course you’ve got the big stars endorsing her: Taylor Swift, Beyonce, Jennifer Lopez, LeBron James, and many others.  And all big name democrats, including every living man to hold the office (except for that coward W!  I mean, Jimmy Carter, 100 years old and in hospice care, endorsed her, but not W.)  And who does tRump have?  Kid Rock.  Kevin Sorbo.  Hulk Hogan.  The MyPillow Guy.  Mole Sunk with his ex-Twitter and Tesla.  And Tucker Carlson.   I don’t think I need to add anything to that. 

But then people say, endorsements don’t really matter.  And maybe they don’t, who knows? 

And yet… 

And Harris has, in just three months, raised nearly a billion dollars!  Yes, a billion, with a B.  Most coming from small donors.  Now tRump has raised a lot of money too, but most of that came from the millionaires and billionaires he wants to give more tax cuts to.  But certainly this shows again the enthusiasm on Harris’ side, to have all these individual normal Americans sending her, in total, so much money.   But then a million dollars collected from small donors spends just the same as a million given by an obscenely rich man. 

And yet…… 

And in my own little world, I’ve observed the following: Lawn signs and flags.  Now my area is very VERY Republican.  In 2020, my county voted for tRump by 43 points.  Yes, you read the correctly: 71 % (57000 votes) to 28% (22000 votes).   I am under no illusion that Harris will win Franklin Co Pa.  But I have seen a LOT of Harris yard signs this time, more than Biden in 2020 or Hillary in 2016, and lot less tRump signs than in either of those years.  I’d say, from my walks and drives around town, I’ve seen roughly 50/50, certainly not as high as 60/40.  And that’s insane for such a Republican area!  But, votes for tRump from a house without yard signs count the same as votes for Harris from a house with yard signs. 

And yet…. 

And yet, the polls.  The polls have this too close to call.  Honestly I just cannot see how that can be. Nonetheless, that's what the polls say.  Could they all be wrong or off?  All wrong or off in the same way?  I don't know, seems unlikely.  

And yet....

There's a site I read pretty much every day, a political site.  First discovered it when Obama was in office, so I've been doing so for at least 10 years.  Its written by two college professors, not pollsters or political talking heads or anyone working for either side.  I've found their posts informative and well thought out and interesting.  And usually correct. 

They said they'll be posting their prediction, probably tomorrow, but when people ask what they think the chances are, they say, "There's a 33% chance tRump wins in a squeaker, there's a 33% chance Harris wins in a squeaker, there's a 33% chance Harris wins in a landslide."   I think those odds are dead on correct. 

My own opinion is, she won't win in a landslide, but she will win.  And I hope to GOD and all that's holy that's it NOT a squeaker.  She has to beat him by three states or more.  I say that because she's only ahead by 15 points or less, a situation where just Pennsylvania or Michigan or any one state will throw the election tRump, when the inevitable tRump lawsuits get to the 6 partisan hacks on the Supreme Court, I have no doubt they'll move heaven and earth and tear precedent, the law and the Constitution to shreds to flip the state and give him the election, and the uncontrolled power they wanted him to have from their immunity decision.  They might even flip two states for him.  But if they have to flip three or more, then that would be too obvious of corruption, even for them.  I'm convinced that's why they didn't do it in 2020, because it would have been too obvious.

So I'm hoping and praying  for a win of more than a squeaker, and I doubt it'll be a landslide. 

Below is my prediction for the final outcome: 

303 electoral votes to 234 electoral votes.  Basically its the same map Biden won with, except Georgia goes red and North Carolina goes blue.  I think NC will flip because too many people there saw the quick response by FEMA and how they helped after Hurricane Helene, and they also heard tRump and all his cronies lying about FEMA.  And I think that's gonna piss them off and cause them to vote for Harris.   I have no specific reason why Georgia will flip back, I just think it will.  I think the Georgia legislature has done whatever they can, illegal or legal, to ensure the state goes red this time.  And I think it will, unfortunately, work. 

NOTE: 

Before I finished and published this, Ann Selzer, the guru of Iowa state politics released her poll of the state and had Harris UP by three points!  After considering this overnight, I have to say I don't really believe that she's up by that much, but recall back in June, Selzer had tRump up in the state by 18 points!   And over the last 12 years, these have been her results there: 

Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result) 2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12) 2020 President: R+7 (R+8) 2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7) 2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3) 2016 President: R+7 (R+9) 2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8) 2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

You can see, historically, her final poll has undervalued the eventual winner by 1, 1, 2, 5, 3, 1 and 0, an average undervaluation of the winner by 1.85.  If this is true this year, then that means Harris IS going to win Iowa, by 4.85 points!  That's pretty difficult to believe. 

Even if she's not spot on (and historically she errs on the side of the winner not the loser, usually), and if tRump does eek out a victory in Iowa, remember that he was up by 18 in June!  That means in 4 months, Harris managed to swing the state by like 20 points in her direction!

I don't think it's all just her, tho. The Iowa 6 week abortion ban took effect in July, and that people PISSED!  that's probably got the most to do with the swing actually. 

But I guess my greater point is, that being the case, what does this foretell for other states?  If she's up in Iowa, of all places, then she's already got all seven swing states in the bag, as all 7 are less Republican leaning than Iowa.    And what other states could a similar swing affect?  

If Selzer's Iowa poll is correct, and I'm not saying it IS, I'm saying IF, then Harris is headed for a landslide!  But that's not my prediction.  This poll could be an outlier.  It could be a repeat of 2018 where she over estimated the Democrat by 5 points.    I guess we'll find out in a couple days.    

Nonetheless, I'm sticking with my original prediction shown the map.  

And praying for an even better result. 

POLT