Wednesday, November 06, 2024
Tuesday, November 05, 2024
The back of your hand, somewhere on my behind (Part 755)...
Monday, November 04, 2024
If I were a hero, I'd be Martin Luther (Part 3040)....
Put your love to the test (Part 1230)....
The truth is I never left you (Part 1844)...
Pink elephants and lemonade, dear Jessie (Part 644)...
If you don't make a choice, and you don't use your voice, someone else will speak for you instead (Part 53).....
It's borderline criminal, but definitely journalistic malpractice. And it's shameful.
Check this out, real quick, don't know if everybody know (Part 4907)....
You're wantin' my body, I don't mind (Part 970)....
Sunday, November 03, 2024
And yet, and yet, you're back.....
So it’s that time of the election season: My predictions.
I will make two predictions that I am absolutely, positively sure will come to pass:
Beyond those two, everything else I have are just gut feelings.
The polling all says it’s a toss up, a coin toss if you will. Could go either way. And that’s all the polling, from good, established pollsters to fly by night partisan hack pollsters. Everyone seems to agree it’s too close to call.
And yet…..
And yet, I see these crowds for Harris. I see her filling out 30, 40, 50,000 seat areas. Everywhere. I see her give a speech before a crowd of 75000 that couldn’t be contained on the Ellipse in Washington, it overflowed into the Washington Mall, going as far as up the hill to the Washington Monument. She first asked for a permit for 20000, and then had to up it to 40000 and then ended up with 75000!
And tRump can only ‘fill’ half of a high school gymnasium. His other venues are never full, and people continuously leave early. Of course, he claims crowds of 50000….in venues that only hold 20000. I have always said Crowds aren’t votes. Even if the same person or people show up to multiple events to show their support that’s still only one vote per person.
But what these crowds DO show is enthusiasm. They show and excited, fired up crowd for Harris, ready to canvas, or phone bank, or go door-to-door, or send money, or talk to their friends and relatives. And they show a tRump crowd that’s barely awake, leaving in droves before he’s done speaking (his usual speech clocks in at over and hour, sometimes and hour and a half. Harris’ Ellipse speech, by the way, was 29 minutes). They don’t show any enthusiasm or interest in doing anything but going home. And an unenthusiastic vote is worth the same as an enthusiastic one remember.
And yet….
And I see online how former and current Republicans are stating they’re voting for a Democrat, just this once, cause they want to preserve democracy. And all kinds of young people posting photos of themselves after the first vote they ever made, or after they cast their vote for the first female president, or after they cast their vote for their future. Now I understand my social media is in a bubble: several years ago I blocked or unfriended or deleted or just stopped contact with rabid MAGAmorons…I just couldn’t their rampant stupidity anymore. So I understand I’m not seeing the full spectrum of voters online.
And yet….
And there are tons and tons and tons of people you wouldn’t think would endorse Harris doing so. Republicans like Lynn Cheney and Adam Kinzinger and just this weekend, Arnold Schwarznegger. And 8 retired four star generals and other high ranking military personnel. And people who worked in the White House with tRump! They knew him best, right? And even his first vice president! Pence has said he cannot support or vote for tRump over the insurrection. Of course you’ve got the big stars endorsing her: Taylor Swift, Beyonce, Jennifer Lopez, LeBron James, and many others. And all big name democrats, including every living man to hold the office (except for that coward W! I mean, Jimmy Carter, 100 years old and in hospice care, endorsed her, but not W.) And who does tRump have? Kid Rock. Kevin Sorbo. Hulk Hogan. The MyPillow Guy. Mole Sunk with his ex-Twitter and Tesla. And Tucker Carlson. I don’t think I need to add anything to that.
But then people say, endorsements don’t really matter. And maybe they don’t, who knows?
And yet…
And Harris has, in just three months, raised nearly a billion dollars! Yes, a billion, with a B. Most coming from small donors. Now tRump has raised a lot of money too, but most of that came from the millionaires and billionaires he wants to give more tax cuts to. But certainly this shows again the enthusiasm on Harris’ side, to have all these individual normal Americans sending her, in total, so much money. But then a million dollars collected from small donors spends just the same as a million given by an obscenely rich man.
And yet……
And in my own little world, I’ve observed the following: Lawn signs and flags. Now my area is very VERY Republican. In 2020, my county voted for tRump by 43 points. Yes, you read the correctly: 71 % (57000 votes) to 28% (22000 votes). I am under no illusion that Harris will win Franklin Co Pa. But I have seen a LOT of Harris yard signs this time, more than Biden in 2020 or Hillary in 2016, and lot less tRump signs than in either of those years. I’d say, from my walks and drives around town, I’ve seen roughly 50/50, certainly not as high as 60/40. And that’s insane for such a Republican area! But, votes for tRump from a house without yard signs count the same as votes for Harris from a house with yard signs.
And yet….
And yet....
They said they'll be posting their prediction, probably tomorrow, but when people ask what they think the chances are, they say, "There's a 33% chance tRump wins in a squeaker, there's a 33% chance Harris wins in a squeaker, there's a 33% chance Harris wins in a landslide." I think those odds are dead on correct.
Below is my prediction for the final outcome:
If Selzer's Iowa poll is correct, and I'm not saying it IS, I'm saying IF, then Harris is headed for a landslide! But that's not my prediction. This poll could be an outlier. It could be a repeat of 2018 where she over estimated the Democrat by 5 points. I guess we'll find out in a couple days.
Nonetheless, I'm sticking with my original prediction shown the map.
If you don't make a choice, and you don't use your voice, someone else will speak for you instead (Part 52).....
It's a thing of beauty.