I made my first donation to Joe Biden April 15th. I have made a donation of the 15th of each month since, and will continue to do so until the election.
Looking at the election projections from The Economist (a magazine that is nowhere NEAR left wing or liberal) on these dates are as follows:
March 15: Biden 270, tRump (impeached) 268 (Biden exactly enough Electoral votes to win)
April 15: Biden 308, tRump (impeached) 230 (Biden +38 Electoral Votes over needed to win)
May 15: Biden 323, tRump (impeached) 215 (Biden +53 Electoral Votes over)
June 15; Biden 339, tRump (impeached) 199 (Biden +69 Electoral Votes over)
July 15; Biden 353, tRump (impeached) 185 (Biden +83 Electoral Votes over)
As much as I LOVE these results (based upon, I believe, polls in specific states as well as National Polls), the race WILL tighten. After Labor Day, when everyone gets focused on the election, and tRump (impeached) and his supporters unleash the horde of (false) rumors and innuendo against Biden and his VP choice, that'll change the outlook of the election. (and they WILL run on rumor and innuendo. The only plan tRump (impeached) has, since he knows he's not going to get any more popular, is to try to make Biden scary, evil and eventually less popular then his is.)
Anyways, I've looked over all this myself, and this is the final Electoral Count as I see it on election night:
Biden 297, tRump (impeached) 241 which would give Biden 27 more Electoral votes than he needs to win. (my best case scenario for Biden has him at 344-194, but that's with him winning Ohio and Florida, and I'm pretty sure the Republican governors there will make sure he doesn't)
But bear in mind, this assumes a free and fair election. Which this one surely will NOT be. The Russians have hacked into anything. And a bill to increase election security passed by the House in 2019, sits on McConnell's desk in the Senate, along with over 400 other House passed bills that wont see a vote. And the Republicans are doing everything they can in red states to stifle traditional Democratic voting blocs from casting votes. And of course tRump (impeached) has the entirely of the US Ferderal government at his disposal to do whatever he has to, illegal or unconstitutional or immoral or just plain evil, to ensure he wins.
Because Donald tRump (impeached) isn't a loser (just ask him). And once he leaves office, he's no longer protected from prosecution.
But hopes springs eternal that right and good and moral and Constitutional wins out.
POLT
Saturday, July 18, 2020
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