Well, I’m sure you’ll hear (if you care to listen) a lot of spin going on from DC and NYC, and other places, about yesterday’s election. But, I’ve got the final word on it cause, well this is my blog, and what I say is the final word.

There was no large national lesson to be taken from any of these elections. As the late, great Tip O’Neill said, “All politics is local.” And this election proved it. Corzine, in NJ, was an ethics ridden, Goldman Sachs candidate who was fatally flawed. Deeds in VA, was an unknown who spent more time trying to define his opponent based upon a decades old thesis instead of spending time defining Deeds himself.

I did get a chuckle out of the NYC mayor’s race. Even though Bloomberg won, he spent like 100 million dollars of his own money to win by a very narrow margin against an opponent who, even the day before the election, many New Yorkers couldn’t even name. It’s refreshing to see that a landslide in money can’t buy you a landslide at the polls.

If one must draw a large national conclusion from these, it would the fact that Obama campaigned in NJ 5 times for Corzine, and he still lost. But I honestly don’t know if that shows a weakness in Obama, or if he just wasn’t strong enough to overcome the weaknesses already inherent in Corzine.

What I think both governors races DO show is that the Republican base, including mostly the wingnuts, are fired up, and the Democratic base isn’t. And I’d say their not, because I’m not either, for one reason: we expected ‘change’ from Obama. What we’ve seen is watering down of important issues (is health care) to attempt to appease Republicans or Blue Dog Democrats who won’t vote for it anyway. Pass the damn bills that the people who elected you, elected you to pass. And if you don’t, one lesson from yesterday is, we’ll stay home at the polls. Try to accomplish ANYTHING with a Republican House and/or Senate.

Moving on, I was quite disappointed and somewhat surprised by the voters of Maine voting to override a law and re-enforce discrimination against some of its citizens. It’s a shame that gays and lesbians have to beg everyone else for their God given and Constitutionally protected rights, but in the end, as time passes, and the homophobic older generation dies off to be replaced by the more accepting younger generation, gay marriage will be commonplace and not an issue. And I hope it’s in my lifetime.

The NY-23 Congressional race was an interesting one, wasn’t it? The wingnut conservatives basically said, “We’re backing one of our own wingnuts, and if the Republican establishment doesn’t like it, then fuck them!” So in other words, the wingnuts would rather lose than have a Republican representing them who isn’t as wingnutty as they are. This seems a bit self destructive, but a Civil War splitting the Republican Party down the middle, with ‘normal’ Republicans on one side and the wingnuts on the other would be a joy to behold.

And when you hear some Republican crowing about how the NJ and VA governors race portend dire things cause they were all about Obama, just remember this chart, so awesomely put together by the great http://www.electoral-vote.com/. and on display there. (I tried to copy it to the blog, but it wouldn’t take, dammit. You’ll have to go there any look, then come back and read my analysis below.)

What it shows is that in the last thirty years, there have been 8 NJ and VA governor’s elections. And in every single one from VA and in all but two from NJ, the party that had won the presidency the year before, LOST the governors races, regardless of whether is was a Democrat or a Republican in the White House. In that historical context, the VA and NJ outcomes should have been expected and not a surprise at all.

And when someone tells you this foretells extreme danger for Democrats in Congress next year, again check the chart. There is no statistical correlation between who wins the VA and NJ governors races and how their parties do in the next year’s election.

So, as I said, and as the chart makes clear, there were no overwhelming national conclusions to draw from two governor’s races, one large city mayor’s race, a special election in upstate NY, and a referendum in Maine.

POLT