There's a webpage http://www.270towin.com/ wherein they've computed all the possible combinations it would take each presidential candidate to get to 270 electoral votes. (Yeah, there IS apparently someone else out there that's a bigger political junkie/geek than me)
They're assuming that only 12 states are actually in play: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. Personally, I disagree with some of that assumption, but whatever, that's where they're starting.
With only those 12 states in play, with all the possible options available to them, the Democrats have 281 potential combination of victory, and the Republicans have 228 potential combinations of victory. And, based on the current polls, assuming they hold true, they calculate the Democrats have a 77% chance of reaching 270, the Republicans have a 20% chance of reaching 270, and there's a 3% chance the there would be a tie in the Electoral College. What fun THAT would be.
They have all the statistically mathematical quotations they use to calculate all this...which is way above my head. And these are just 'chances', I mean if we went by that, then why even have an election? It's interesting to me, but ultimately, it is what it is.
Check it out yourself if you want, they've got a nifty interactive map and historical maps and stuff.
POLT Listening to "Vera" by Pink Floyd
I can loan you the money, but since you have no collateral, I'll have to break your legs in advance. - Big Tony, The Simpsons
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1 comment:
see, that's how they know which states they need to steal. which of those, I wonder, still use diebold.
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